Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that “survived” some process and ignoring those that didn’t. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways. The survivors may literally be people, as in a medical study, or could be companies or research subjects or applicants for a job, or anything that must make it past some selection process to be considered further.

Survivorship bias can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because failures are ignored, such as when companies that no longer exist are excluded from analyses of financial performance. It can also lead to the false belief that the successes in a group have some special property, rather than being just lucky.

Wiki also goes to explain this with a lovely example.

If the three of the five students with the best college grades went to the same high school, that can lead one to believe that the high school must offer an excellent education. This could be true, but the question cannot be answered without looking at the grades of all the other students from that high school, not just the ones who “survived” the top-five selection process.

I thought this is a great concept for us to be aware. The fundamental point here is about how well the sample that we consider represents the overall population. It is a general tendency to ignore the failures and consider only the ‘survivors’ as our sample. Imagine a company opening about 100 funds of which over a period of time they close down about 30 of their worst performing funds. Now the balance 70 funds, which are the ‘survivors’ would certainly have good returns. Now the company can brag how their funds are outperforming the market. What we might miss to see is that these funds are the survivors who would naturally have a higher skewed average.

During World War II the English sent daily bombing raids into Germany. Many planes never returned; those that did were often riddled with bullet holes from anti-air machine guns and German fighters. Wanting to improve the odds of getting a crew home alive, English engineers studied the locations of the bullet holes. Where the planes were hit most, they reasoned, is where they should attach heavy armor plating. Sure enough, a pattern emerged: Bullets clustered on the wings, tail, and rear gunner’s station. Few bullets were found in the main cockpit or fuel tanks. The logical conclusion is that they should add armor plating to the spots that get hit most often by bullets. But that’s wrong. Planes with bullets in the cockpit or fuel tanks didn’t make it home; the bullet holes in returning planes were “found” in places that were by definition relatively benign. The real data is in the planes that were shot down, not the ones that survived.

In this fantastic example, the sample data for the research must have been what happened to the planes that were shot down. That’s what would help them in bringing back more people alive. The research on the returned planes and in particular, the decision to install heavy armour plates in the areas with maximum hit, is a classic display of survivorship bias.

While statistics is about interpreting the data available, what’s also important is to know about the data that is not available and the significance of the unknown data in the projections based on statistical methods. Also, the fact that there are failures which are being removed out of the system, makes any comparison to the past data potentially meaningless.

As you’re aware, in large organisations, on a periodic basis, there would employee feedback surveys. Assume that the survey shows that about 20% are terribly unhappy. Suppose these 20% staff leave the organisation, the newer survey tends to show a better result than last year’s one. The latest survey results are better because it considers the feedback of only the survivors and hence the result could be skewed.

Why does this survivorship bias exist? Can we avoid it? Traditionally, we are biased towards survivors or winners. We read stories, biographies and autobiographies of the winners and survivors to learn how they did it. There’s more to be learnt from the ones who did not survive. Studying the survivors alone could produce a skewed result. The population cannot be complete without taking into account the ones who did not survive.

The other day at lunch, one colleague of mine was saying that there are almost no bad actors in Hollywood (when compared to Indian movies), only for another colleague to quickly point out that ‘probably only those kind of movies don’t get released here’. That’s classic case of survivorship bias and subsequent realisation. Despite our understanding of statistical sampling, we tend to think that the sample of movies that’s released in India is the whole population of Hollywood movies made.

So how does this help us? Why would we have to be aware about this concept? Learning about the survivorship bias makes you less vulnerable to be fooled by this phenomenon. It helps you to ask the right questions. It helps you to put things in perspective. It helps you to read beyond the numbers and also remind you about the significance of the unknown data.

I’m very impressed with this concept. If we are not careful, this bias or a pitfall that we could fall into, very easily in our day to day life. As soon as I read this as a concept, I’m able to see this bias exists almost everywhere and that’s being exploited. Hope it helps you too, if not, at least this is a new thought to debate.

One gets angry when things don’t go as expected. When things don’t go as expected what you need is a decision to turn things around. Instead, when the immediate response is anger, mind’s not in the right condition for taking decisions. Anger is always an immediate response. Upon waiting it becomes vengeance. When someone upsets or disappoints you, all that you want to do is to immediately let the other person know that, through your angry face or words. That’s not the way to go for collaboration, co-operation or resolution. You only end up creating a very unhealthy climate by transferring negativity.

I’m of the opinion that anger just does not help. It has no positive value or utility. It might look that it helps, in the very short run, but it actually does not. I have heard people say about their subordinates ‘I blasted him and the document was on my desk in an hour’. He was not waiting for you to shout at him so he can prepare and keep it ready on your desk. The reason the work did not happen must have been something else. The moment your anger gets the work done for you, there are three dangerous consequences (i) you might fail to find the real reasons and root causes (ii) you start to think anger ‘works’ (iii) your anger creates a chain reaction.

Even worse is when people take pride about their anger. It’s easy to be angry, very easy to be angry, when one has the authority. Bosses over subordinates, parents over children, teachers over students – that’s all very easy. If you just reverse the roles for these people, you’ll realise that being angry is very easy. When someone’s angry, what that tells me is they have no other ideas, options, thoughts of how to handle the situation. That’s why I call anger as a poor substitute for logic and reason. You resort to anger only when you are unable to think, logic, reason and feel.

In my opinion, people get angry over others for only these reasons (i) their own mistakes, inability and helplessness (ii) having incorrect, unfair expectations on other people (iii) their own upsets and disappointments (iv) when they face the truth. In other words, we have only ourselves to blame for our anger. If I ever said that someone made me angry, that would be an absurd statement because to be or not to be angry is your choice. Anger comes out of very low awareness and maturity.

I do get angry sometimes. Once the moment of madness is over, I feel ashamed that I couldn’t find a better way to deal with it. And I make sure I deal it a more matured manner in future. That’s a promise I make to myself. Probably you guessed it, I was angry when I started writing this blog. Now I feel I’ve calmed down.

Andre Agassi: I’m a big fan of Andre Agassi. I liked his style before I learned that he had substance too. In 1992, I was watching and cheering him all the way to the finals of the Wimbledon. He was unique. He was a crowd puller and an entertainer than a tennis player and athlete. He was much more human when you compared him with others in his league. His Wimbledon win against Ivanisevic in the finals was a victory of mankind over machines. Was he the first male tennis player to cry in the court? Surely must be one of the rarest. I loved his pony hairstyle and wished I had something like that. Did try that too!

Jose Mourinho: He could very well be the odd one out in the list. He is special because he can be the odd one out in any group. People would describe him as successful, intelligent, objective, sharp-tongued and down-to-earth. That’s what he is. Even his biggest fans would also admit that he is brash, arrogant, cheeky and cunning at times. You just don’t mess with Jose. For me, he is a symbol of confidence. He is very good and he knows that he is very good. He walks as much as he talks. He is the most successful young manager in the world of football management dominated by older pros. His success was built primarily on his people management and his analytical methods. He was the reason why I started following Chelsea FC. Legend.

Mahatma Gandhi: Unbelievable. To live his life the way he did, is just impossible. He must be one of the best leaders ever to have lived. It’s not very easy to lead a mass of 300 million with a principles of non-violence and truth. With masses, the psychology that easily works is that of violence and revenge, not non-violence, truth and patience. I have the highest regards for his principles and the way he united people for one common cause. I wonder how he made millions believe that ‘satyagraha’ is the right way to achieve independence. Do you know that he had once listed down seven social sins – politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice. Albert Einstein once said that generations to come will find it hard to believe that such a man lived ever in flesh and blood and walked upon this earth. There is no better summary of Gandhi’s life than that one.

Sachin Tendulkar: I think I was his cousin or a brother in my previous birth. I love this guy so much. He’s a genius. He’s gifted. He’s supremely talented. I feel privileged to have been a contemporary of Sachin Tendulkar. No one has entertained me like Sachin Tendulkar has. I was not alone in turning up, tuning up and waking up only because he was playing. For the kind of adulation he receives in India, it’s hard to play and live like he has. Incredibly level headed, humble and mature, he is a symbol of consistency. He is a phenomenon. He is an era. He is a great role model. That quote of Einstein on Gandhi holds good for Sachin Tendulkar too.

A.R.Rahman: Genius. Consistent. Mature. Level headed. Humble. Sounds like the paragraph on Sachin Tendulkar, isn’t it? I love Rahman for the same reasons that I mentioned for Sachin. The thing I’m very highly impressed is the way he keeps on bettering himself even though he is the best in his league. Every time I listen to a great album from Rahman, ‘I’d be thinking this is his best yet’ and I’ve thought this way more than a dozen times. He is just unbelievable. The era in which he is making music is entirely different than the one where some of our greats had made music. He has already revolutionised music in India and he has a long way to go. I feel privileged to realise that I could still be listening to Rahman’s new smashing music even after 10 years!

Frank Lampard: When he ends his footballing career, he could very well be the best Chelsea player in the club’s history. That’s no mean feat. He is pretty similar to A R Rahman in his personality. He has achieved so much and has many more years left in him to achieve more. The dedication and professonalism that he still shows is incredible. He must have been one of the most underrated and jeered/abused player of his league. He doesn’t care about the criticisms and just goes on to prove them wrong, season after season. I’m sure he won’t stop until the whole football world accepts his genius. Another fantastic role model.

Vijayakrishna: Yup, it’s me. I think I’ve been an inspiration for myself and I thoroughly enjoy being myself. Nobody knows me as much as I know. So I’m the most capable and competent person to talk about how inspiring I have been for myself. No matter how expressive you are, you’re not even going to express half of what you actually are and that’s that half that other people would understand, mistake, like, hate, admire, despise, adore, ignore you. No one will ever know what’s their in the other unexpressed half in me. I’m very proud about how I have lived my 30 years. I admire myself. I’m sure you do that to yourself. It’s a different matter if you want to admit that or not!

If you don’t know any of these names (except mine . . .), just help yourself with google/wiki. I’ll do a bit of analysis for you. Out of these 7 personalities, four are sports personalities, one was a spiritual/political leader, one musician and myself. I think that pretty much respresents me.

It has happened to me, many times. There are places in different countries where I felt that I’ve been there before. It’s not all that cinematic that I could find my way through the gullies and canals. It’s just that in certain places, you get this feeling that ‘I’ve stood in this very place and have looked at this image in front of me, but don’t know when’. By definition, it is an ‘already seen’ feeling. Some sense of familiarity. There were many occasions when I thought I’ve had this very discussion before, this statement, this laugh, this posture, this set of people, this time of the day, this very place and all together. Sometimes they are interesting, some time they are downright scary.

How would you explain this? I see that this is being explained from various angles. There is this convenient explanation that says this has something to do with a mental disorder. That’s a bit lazy to call it that way. Even dreams would then be a case of mental disorder. Also, as far as I know, most of the people I’ve talked to on this topic have said that they have experienced deja vu. You don’t have so many people walking around with mental disorders. The world’s not so bad.

There is also this sub-conscious memory angle. Some believe that the deja vu feeling you get is from your own memory. If during my first visit to London if there’s a place where I get this feeling that I’ve been there, that’s all from my own deep lying memory. The conscious memory records all your real life experiences that you’re part of, things that you experience, read, see and hear. If you had seen something in your dream and if you forget the dream when you wake up, that piece of recording goes out of your conscious memory and stays within your sub-conscious memory. When in real life, if you get to see one of those places that you had seen in your dream, in a flash, your conscious memory and sub-conscious memory meet to make that connection. Guess I’m making sense.

Some even extend this to say that the memories of your previous births are also hidden deep in your mind and the deja vu moments are the ones where your mind googles the current image and finds a match from your archives of previous lives. It doesn’t make sense for someone like me who does not believe in previous births or lives. Anyway, these sub-conscious memory rationale doesn’t explain how I get the deja vu feeling when I’m talking to a bunch of people. How could this situation be recorded in any part of my memory? This is an event and not an image. This event of discussion is just happening or unfolding as I get this feeling that I’ve had this very chat before. What could this be?

I’ve thought about this and I’ve given up too. It’s a strange phenomenon indeed. What is your understanding or explanation of deja vu? Have you had any such moments? I’ve had a lot of those deja vu moments. Many a time I also pause and freeze to fully realise that. I’m sure you’d have had yours too. The next time I do get a deja vu, I’d get back right here and update you. Wait a moment, do you think you’ve read exactly a post like this on deja vu on this very blog some time back? You’re being ‘dejavued’.

On a nice Saturday morning, when made myself comfortable on the couch while booting up the footie in the xbox, my mom tells me that I have to go to the ration shop today. I was like ‘sorry, come again?’. I was very sure that it was not for buying anything from the ration shop because they know that I’d buy it at a premium from outside than visiting a ration shop. I realised that it was something administrative and since I’m the head of the family as per the ration card, I had to go. I finished my coffee and wore the most unatractive, unflashy of all clothes as we set out for the adventure.

We took an auto as we knew it was about 2 kms or something and I would not take my car for such short distances. While inside the auto, I just checked with my mom on why exactly are we going to the ration shop. She told me that the bills are going to be computerised soon and our ration card number and other details have to be captured in a register by the staff and signed off by the head of the family. I didn’t get it because the ration card I have is a computer generated one and that should normally mean they would all the data in their systems somewhere. I parked my logic aside and got on with the work.

We reached the ration shop. It didn’t have a big neon board but it did have something that characterises a ration shop. It had long queues. I said ‘queues’ because there were these primary queues for men and women separately and there were these secondary queues which may not be long enough to be called queues but serve the same purpose. I stood in the men’s queue and told my mom to wait in the shadows of the minimalist temple that was opposite to the shop.

Standing in a queue is never fun. In some places, they understand the psyche of the people in the queue and do something about it. But here though, the queue is practically on the road and it was about 11am in the morning which did not improve on the experience. There were some really really nasty arguments and quarrels from the women’s queue. That was the only piece of entertainment. The experience can be better if the wait is worth it. I know standing here is not the same as waiting in the queue for an Apple ipod on the launch day.

While it was about 25 minutes in the queue, I heard someone say that the process of ‘entry in the register’ as they call it, would happen only for the card numbers upto 1500 and the others should come ‘some other time’. I quickly checked my card, mine was way above 3000. I did not want to waste single minute there if I’m not going to be serviced. I tried to look for some announcements or some stuff around where it gives these details. I wasn’t surprised, there was none. There is no way I could check with the staff in the shop because from where I was I couldn’t even see whether there is anyone inside and if yes, how many. My best chance was to ask the gentleman was ahead of me in the queue. He confirmed so confidently that they would do for all card numbers. That eased me a bit. From then on, I tried to peep into every serviced customer to see if their card number is beyond 1500. But I failed.

The queue experience is never going to be complete without an infiltration. When I was nearing the final third, this 50-something man was suddenly standing so very closely to me. And he was talking as if he is the uncle of the man before me and the father of the boy behind me. I knew that before I could realise he could take my place and he is not someone I would like to reason. That’s when I had to be very tactical, in terms of my movements, my gestures, my turns and man, it was so subtle that it is probably an art as much as queue infiltration.

I got really closer to the service desk that I can ask the staff if they service cards beyond 1500 that day. As I got closer to the desk, I could see the kind of customer service and client focus that was in display. That kind of made me think ‘what’s the point in asking him now. anyway i’ve stood in the queue for an hour. it’s just a few minutes more’. I waited for my chance. The staff were very cold in their approach and had only one thing in their mind – to get rid of these bastards in the queue so they can go home. Some of the interactions would make you wonder who is the customer here? Customer is king? Then that staff must be the queen.

Finally, it was my turn. The staff looked at my card and turned the register towards me. It was a manually pre-numbered accounts register. They had pre-numbered the register only upto 2295. I thought, don’t ever think of telling me to go back for this bloody reason. He was in a thinking mode. No, don’t even reject me. I’ve stood this fuckin queue for about an hour in hot sun among the people I’d not share my life boat with. I think he got a brilliant idea then. He struck the card number on my ration card and wrote 2295 instead. He’s a fuckin genius! He got my mobile number and then updated the details in the register in the 2295 column and asked me to sign. Despite being a chartered accountant, I didn’t quite know why I was signing. Anyway, if that was to signal the end of the gruelling process, I’d even sign once more.

That was it. I really wish I don’t have to go the ration shop again until and unless they put aircons, make the staff more courteous, provide more clarity of the process, reduce the queue time by 90%, introduce e-ration shop etc. In other words, I’m not going again.

Back in school, it’s a sick advantage if you’re name starts with the last few alphabet. Mine being ‘V’, I always had this leeway being a bit late to the class and still getting my attendance marked. I pity that guys Aakash. On the other hand, when it comes to announcing the test results and handing over the test papers, I always had to go through the suspense and thrill as I see names fall one by one.

Vijayakrishna is not a difficult name to remember, read or pronounce. But it’s not a very common name. The thing with uncommon names is always that people would call you with the nearest common name without even caring how annoying it is for the one addressed. All through my school and college, very frequently I’m called ‘Vijaykumar’ because that’s easy and lazy. Everytime I introduce myself I make it a point to say ‘Vijayakrishna’. While I’d love to be called Vijayakrishna, I can say almost no one calls me so. From family to friends to colleagues, I’m just Vijay. The name Vijay is a bit boring. It’s a name of million others. But I’ve made this compromise long back.

I hate when people call me anything other than Vijayakrishna or Vijay. I get wild when people call me Vijaykrishnan or anything like that. It’s even worse when it’s written. People always take the liberty of chopping and chewing your name because they think it’s insignificant. They think, as long as they look at you and speak to you, it doesn’t matter if they get your name wrong. It’s plain negligence and lethargy. Why don’t you call me Mr.President when you’re looking into my eyes?

I particularly hate when people put a space in my name. For decades, they have been falling into the same pitfall. It’s a single word Vijayakrishna. It’s got no spaces in between. It should have an A between Vijay and Krishna. It does not end with a N. It’s really simple. I know that the pronounciation may differ from person to person but it’s certainly not hard to look at how I write my name and make an attempt to read it the way it is. It could be really annoying if your name is spelt the wrong way and that’s how it appears in all your records. I simply cannot stand it. The only variation to my name that I accept and like is ‘vjkrishna’.

I know some people who don’t really like their names. May be its not very strange. Names are just like faces, bodies and such stuff. Some may like to have a sharper nose or green eyes. At least, you can change your name as you want, if you’re willing to go through the administrative difficulties. I’m certainly not talking about nameology or numerology. I don’t want to write my name Vyjaiacrrichna because it adds up to something. Names do have character. Names are also personal. One might love his/her name, take pride in his/her name and be very particular about his/her name. People who are not mindful of this don’t impress me much.

What started as a post has ended as a rant. Anyway, rant is over.

We want to witness these things so we can get that original experience and probably tell stories. That’s what exactly I’m doing now. On the tsunami day, if you’re a Chennaiite, you must have been in Chennai. I would have been hugely disappointed to find myself miles away from the coast on that day. When such things happen there is a tendency to witness and experience these things. That’s the top-of-the-mind feeling. That’s more to do with the natural calamities because we haven’t still figured them out yet. They are huge, they are powerful, they are unstoppable, they’re mysterious, they prove that they’re bigger than you and your scientific achievements all put together.

Being undecided on whether to believe or not, I took my motorbike and rushed to the beach. The beach was just a mile from my home. The moment I came out of my home, I realised that it had to be true. There were so many people on the road in groups, talking about what they saw, why the tsunami has come, the end of the world and all that. It was awfully unusual to find so many people on the road. When you find so many people on the road, they must be walking or moving or they must be in a procession. These people were not walking or moving. They were simply standing on the roads and talking in groups. May be, they felt more comfortable in the company of fellow humans. Natural calamities do unite people.

As I got closer and closer to the beach, I could see that there was a huge mass of people facing the beach, watching the damage and the proceedings. I parked my bike somewhere. Nobody cares about ‘no parking zones’ in these times. Such times are when no one would bother much about law and order or discipline. Discipline is for orderliness among the humans. But the humanity was under threat. At least that’s what most of them thought. Many thought tsunamis were happening all over the world on that day. Many thought there would be more tsunamis on the same day. Many thought that that would be the end of the world. It was impossible to ignore that, as per Hindu cosmology, the end of the world had something to do with water.

I managed to find my way through the mass of onlookers to get a peep at my beloved beach. I couldn’t believe my eyes. I couldn’t see the beach at all. It was all filled with ocean water. The ocean had broken its boundaries and had truly entered the city. What I saw was ocean and after the ocean the main roads of the city. The ocean had come closer by more than half a mile. The beautiful sand beach was not to be seen at all. I could see the huge boats on the main road. They were washed away to that extent. The rescuers were still busy rescuing people and retrieving the dead bodies.

The marina beach had a crucial part in my life. Marina was never too far me. For about 25 years, we had stayed less than a kilometre distance from the beach. It’s hard find a Chennai boy not have played cricket in the beach. I too have played in the beach. Now I wonder how we managed to play there. There were so many teams, players, pitches and balls completely overlapping each other but still there was some method in the madness. May be it was the chaos that we liked and enjoyed. Me and my friends used to spend so much of our time in the beach also chatting, discussing, arguing and debating. During my college days and later, we used to be there almost every other evening with some or the other topic to talk about. It could range from mild-ragging one of our gang or to some serious social issues. I have some fantastic memories from the Marina beach.

I returned home dumbstruck and awestruck. That was one day when all the households were watching nothing but news channels. All those ‘I-told-you-so’ astrologers were having a field day. More doomsdays were predicted. Scientists had their say. Nostradamus was referred and every effort was made to interpret him in such a way he predicted this. I was in shock though I didn’t quite express it. It wasn’t just shock, it was some kind of unexplainable fear. There was some pain too. It was very painful to see the beach like that. It was like seeing the rubble of your house where you lived for decades. We didn’t know the beach would be back to its beauty. We didn’t know when we would be able to visit the beach again. We didn’t know if the fear of tsunami would play a part in our relationship with the beach going forward. For many days the beach was completely deserted, partly due to the police restrictions and mostly due to the fear of more tsunamis.

My father tells me that when there was a attack threat on Madras during the second world war, many landlords sold their property for throwaway prices and fled from the city. Similarly, tsunami brought the real estate prices down in the coastal regions. When there is a threat on life, money becomes a non-issue. Life is uncertain. But we go on living as if we’re very certain about our lives. We keep saying life is uncertain but don’t actually live our lives like we mean it. We realise soon enough that life being uncertain is the most certain thing.

I told you that I don’t get dreams or nightmares. But the few days since the tsunami, I got so many nightmares. The one I still vividly remember is this. I’m in the terrace of my friend’s two-storey house. The road in which this house is, is very broad and is perpendicular to the beach. From the terrace, you could see the beach and the ocean very easily. While I’m standing there road-watching, I suddenly see people running haywire on the road. There is suddenly chaos and terror. And the next thing I see is that of huge wave of water entering that road. The water level is so high that standing in the terrace I could reach out to touch the water. That image of ocean gushing towards us in that broad road submerging all the houses was the most horrific nightmare I’ve ever had. It chills my spine when I write this now!

This is a fake picture but this the closest we’d get to see a true tsunami scene. Imagine being able to see such massive waves gushing towards you and you’re watching it from the beach! Nowhere to run. Surrender and accept the truth.

If we claim that we learn from experiences, events and incidents such as these must have also taught us something. That tsunami was a clear reminder to humanity. A reminder that there is very little under our control. A reminder of how uncertain life is. There are many such reminders. They have and will come in the form of tsunamis, floods, earthquakes, fires, typhoons or even with those little things we can’t control. Let’s be aware, be reminded.

Whenever I saw images and pictures of Indian freedom struggle and the attrocities during that period, they used to get my blood boil. I had a strong feeling that I’d have done something worthwhile. I’d not have joined the Indian National Army. Even as a young boy I was not attracted to the Bhagat Singh / Subhash Bose type of independence movement. I think I never believed in violence. I would have certainly joined Gandhi’s movement. I always respected and admired Gandhi. He might have got a few things right and few things wrong but to lead a life he led, is a massive achievement and sacrifice.

So, as a young boy, very naively, I have even thought, ‘why was I not born in that period? i could’ve fought for India’. I’m asking myself now. Do I now think that I’d have played an active role in the Indian independence if I was born, say, in1910?

I guess not. Now, I’m very convinced that I’d not have done anything special. To participate in anything like the Indian freedom movement, you need to have many things. You should have a concern for the people, you should have a desire to convert this concern into actions, you should be willing to make sacrifices, you should not worry about the consequences, you should stop living for yourselves. I don’t think I’d have made it. Probably, I’d have comforted myself into a nice job and family and probably at best, would have been writing in favour of Indian independence.

There are always needs for such movements. Earlier, it was for freedom struggle. Now there could be a new reason. In fact, the present reasons could be much more pressing than the freedom struggle. There might be a need for a movement against corrupt politicians, a movement against inefficient public servants, a movement in favour of education, a movement against communaism – there could be so many and there are so many. Have I shown any intention to change anything that’s happening around me. No. Have I shown any signs of actively engaging myself to bring about change? No. How can I honestly say that ‘I’d have played an active role in the Gandhian movement’? I cannot.

Active role does not even mean playing a leading role. Active role is just actively participating and supporting, which anyone with a genuine desire and passion must be able to do. When someone asked me if I’d like to become a prime minister, my answer was no. I don’t want to. I might be very unpopular with such a statement but I simply don’t think my life should be spent sacrificing for others. There were so many martyrs in the freedom struggle who spent all their lives and got nothing for themselves. So many unsung heroes. I don’t think I can make such sacrifices. And I don’t want to make such sacrifices.

How many of us have the courage to quit our fine careers for the common cause? How many of us prefer IAS and IPS over CA and MBA? How many of us can spend our lives for others? How many of us can take the plunge? How many of us will stop thinking ‘what’s in it for me’? Now, how many of us would say ‘I’d have done this and that in our independence movement’?

Opportunities: I think it can’t be a question of opportunities as they are certainly available. When I talk about opportunities I’m talking about women at large, not just Indian women. There are enough opportunities for women to get jobs in banks, companies and even politics. Creative arts require natural talent and genius which can create opportunities for the artists in the normal course of time. Are women being encouraged to take up creative arts is another question. With ‘less’ pressure to be breadwinner, I would imagine that women are better placed to take up creative arts.

Priorities: Yes, that could be different. If I’m very creative and I don’t apply my creativity beyond my realms, no one may ever get to know. As such, creativity can be applied anywhere. When they get applied in popular arts, it reaches people and creates that publicity. If I have different priorities and none of them are as popular as painting, writing, poetry, humour or music, it’s hard for me to prove that I’m a creative person too. It’s just a matter of choice about where I want to be creative.

Creativity: Is it just a matter of not being creative enough? Creativity may not have anything to do with gender. I respect statistics a lot. If creativity has nothing to do with gender, why would, even in 2009, we have less representation from women in creative arts? I know a few people who very categorically say that men are more creative than women. They say it as a matter of fact statement. It’s like saying Chennai burns like hell and Bangalore has a lovely weather. That’s how the creation is. It is not a matter of Chennai’s mistake or Bangalore’s choice when you talk about their weather. Out of the box is fine but if the box itself is very small, it may not be as out of the box as you’d like. Is their box very small? Or that’s because this is a man’s world?

I know I’ve used the word ‘creative’ a bit loosely here but I hope you get the point. To further the point, make a list of 10 most famous thinkers, 10 most famous philospohers, 10 most famous inventors, 10 most famous spiritual gurus, 10 most famous explorers and out of these find out how many . . .

Every single person you meet tells you that you’re going to win. Some of them mean it and some of them say it because it’s a nice thing to say. Every gathering and every party you go to, you’re flooded with wishes and there is expectation all around. The countdown to the night is killing to a point where you don’t want to think about the future. Your wife says that you’ll win it. Your kids say that they know you’ll win it. The one thing that matters is winning. That wonderful feeling. You should win not becauce you were the best of the lost that year. You have to win because you don’t want to let anyone down.

Then comes the betting odds. You’re a favourite to win it. There are opinion polls. It’s you all the way. There are expert predictions. You top the list. Golden Globe Awards. You win it. Your odds improve. Your stock goes up to dizzying heights. You start believing that this is truly your year. You prepare for your thank you speech. Make a quick note of who need to be thanked and all that. You even take some help in writing that thank you note. You keep reminding yourself of things to do and things not to do on the night. You know winning or losing is not the end of the world but you know you simply can’t lose. You wonder why should they announce the award in the show? Why can’t they release it to the press the previous day? This show could be so fantastic then.

Then comes the big night. You walk on the red carpet hoping that you’d carry home that statue when you step back again on it. The awards ceremony begins. You are made to wait for your nominated section. The humour of the hosts does not really amuse you because you simply can’t wait. Inside, you’re screaming God! stop the jokes, get on with the awards!!!. There are so many other inconsequential stuff that you should watch through before yours would be introduced. It’s time for your section. The names of the nominees are called out. The sound of your name chills your spine and is greeted with the loudest of crowd cheer. You’re the favourite after all. They’re opening the envelope. You hold your nerves and try to stay balanced. You’re telling yourself to stay cool. Stay cool like you’ve won this a dozen times before.

And the oscar goes to . . . someone else.

You don’t want to believe it. For once you feel you’re not there. No one thinks you’re there except the dear ones near you who read out to you their quick consolation note. The winner is showered with kisses as he stands up to walk. Every single person looks at the stood up man. All eyes on the winner. You feel so fucking disappointed and unexplainably upset. It’s all come to an end. Fuck the odds, opinion polls and experts. This is the reality. You didn’t win it. You’re gonna leave this place the same way you came in, probably worse if not anything. Getting nominated is no mean feat, but when you do get nominated, you don’t want to stop there and it’s no longer a thing that you cherish most. You didn’t win. The disappointment of not winning is a hundred times bigger than the pleasure of being nominated.

You have no interest whatsoever in being there for the rest of the show. You’re trying your best to take it easy but you can’t. The hosts are still being funny with those one-liners. You still don’t appreciate, this time though for a different reason. You make up your mind. You remind yourself to appear gracious at defeat. You’re being watched and tracked. You remind yourself to say nice things about the winner so that you’re not seen as a sore loser. You’re waiting for the show to end. God, why do they have to award even the short animated films? who cares about them?. Show’s over. Dinner’s over. You’ve played the nice guy well enough.

It’s time to get back home. Life as usual. No cameras outside your house. No press coverage. No spotlight. They’re all busy with the winners. After the disappointment, you’re yet to meet all those people from your neighbours to relatives to friends. You need to appear cheerful and nice, and accept their ‘you deserved it better’, ‘hard luck’. You hate when people console you. You scream inside ‘I don’t need your fake words. Just get lost’. I don’t know for how many days but you have to endure that. You’re slowly getting tired of it but that’s the way it works. It would have all been all right if not for the hype which you did not create yourselves. They pulled you up to heights and have dropped you as well.

It’s tough to be a winner, but it’s tougher to be a loser especially if you don’t want to be one. It’s true that defeat teaches you more than victory does. My heart goes out to all those who weren’t nominated and who didn’t win despite their best performances.

Or may be, the perfect murder is possible, after all? Even the much-hailed LAPD has a murder case that is unresolved for 70 years! I don’t know what percentage of murders actually get solved. May be we can call all those unsolved murders as perfect ones. But then, just because the case is not closed may not mean that the case is unresolved. A case moy not be closed for various reasons, of which unable to solve the murder could be one. A murder is still a very unsophisticated crime. It is in most cases, a man to man thing. Whereas, forensic science has gone leaps and bounds over the last few decades. Man still kills man for the same reasons, using the same weapons, in the same locations, but the ways and means to solve the murder through forensic methods are ‘state-of-the science’.

‘Dial M for Murder’ is one of my most favourite films. It is one of Alfred Hitchcock’s best ever. The movie is all about a man’s attempt to commit a perfect murder. He hires a stranger so a motive cannot be established. The job is to kill his wife. The scene where the husband talks to convince the paid-killer that his plan would work, is one of the best scenes I’ve seen in movies. As you’d expect, it fails because the protagonist is after all, a human. Despite weaving a well-explained fool-proof master plan, few things don’t go as planned which results in the assassin getting killed by accident. In further investigation, which is also excellently explained, the intelligent police officer solves the crime. The screenplay sets a benchmark for mystery/thriller movies. As with any Hitchcock movie, you gotta observe very well or watch it a few times to fully appreciate Hitchcock’s genius.

Why can’t be there a perfect murder? Quite difficult. There are always some clues which are there to see. One, there would be a motive. For every murder, you might zero in on to the ones who could have a motive. Two, it’s nearly impossible for the murderer to leave no evidences or witnesses behind. Forensic experts are way too sophisticated to keep scratching their heads. With an half-an-inch hair, they can probably tell you what you had for dinner last night. Three, it’s hard to fool all the people all the time. Humans are humans. No matter what, even the coldest of hearts will beat faster when lie, when they sense that they are being closed in.

The only way to commit a perfect murder would be like this. Someone from say, Delhi goes to say Kanpur. And this guy picks up some random person at home, murders him and returns to Delhi like nothing happened and continues to live his life. There is no motive here. Unless he has left any glaring clues, it’s hard to trace this guy back to Delhi because there is no reason, there is no motive. If you wonder why someone has to do this, believe me, there are all types of people in this world. Some psychopaths kill people for no reason. Those can be caught only in action. It’s hard to investigate their crime because even the evidences are of little help as there would no motive that can trace back to them. In another Hitchcock classic ‘Strangers on a Train’, two strangers meet in a train and develop a conversation. One man offers to kill the other man’s wife, while the other guy offers to kill this man’s brother. By trading murders, they can commit ‘motiveless’ murders, while they can have a perfect alibi.

Remember, there is only so much the law enforcement can handle. At any given point of time they may not be able to efficiently work on more than a certain number of cases. The resources, human and technical, will be limited to a certain extent. There’s going to be prioritisation there too. If it’s between the murder of a 20-year old BPO employee or a 80-year old street dweller, you know which catches the eye of the media and hence the demands the time of the police.

So, I’d conclude that perfect murders are always possible. It’s just that they don’t get caught. If they get caught, that wasn’t a perfect one. Easy to conclude, isn’t it?

Black negative. White positive. Why is black always associated with unpleasant things? Isn’t this a subtle way of racial discrimination? On one side we say ‘no to racism’ and then we see that subtly and symbolically racism exists. While it’s considered an offence to show racial discrimination, some racists never miss a chance to show the difference these ways. The colour black is not such an unpleasant colour in the Tamil language. That’s because Tamil is not the language of the white race. In English, most of the expressions using the black colour never have a pleasant reference.

A disastrous Monday is a black Monday. You don’t want to get a black mark. You would be careful of the black sheep. You don’t want to be blacklisted by anyone. You don’t want your stuff to be sold in the black market. You’d never like to be black mailed. Nothing scares you more than black magic. You may not be very popular with your black humour. You’d never appreciate a black-hearted person. You’d wear the black hat to look at the negatives of an idea. We will all vanish into the black hole.

If you are a black person, how comfortable would you be in using these expressions? Unfortunately, these cannot be erased from the language. These expressions have been in use for decades and centuries, probably since the first black man was noticed by an English-speaking man. To use any of these expressions may not mean you’re racist but I cannot ignore the undercurrent. Edward de Bono first talked about the six hats in the mid-80s. He could have said, black hat symbolises creativity or positive thinking. He didn’t. At least, I think we should be mindful of this fact when we propound new ideas and coin new words and expressions.

With these kind of references to the colour black, it’s hard to whitewash the undertones.